JJ explain. GIF. I bought and I really enjoyed his strategies for approaching the middle and later rounds of the draft for each position. It'd be completely asinine to spend a luxury pick on a running back who'd only play passing downs, and this is likely just a classic instance of coach speak. JJ wrote an e-book called The Late-Round Quarterback in 2012. Aaron Rodgers FINALLY Done in Green Bay? A dynasty fantasy football podcast hosted by Peter Howard (@pahowdy). The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast, Mailbag 2/24/23. Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 25Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 13Post-Draft Positional Rank: 13Tier: 7. -- it's not all bad. . I've happily drafted the "bad quarterback" in each of the last three years. Archived post. Those are the three main production metrics my model -- which tries to predict fantasy output across a player's first three NFL seasons -- analyzes at the running back position. Waddle doesn't look nearly as good within my wide receiver model. I'm a new listener to his podcast but have consumed all of it this off-season. He's one of 11 drafted wide receivers with a best-season yards per team attempt rate north of 3.0, and with a strong breakout age, Brown is listed as an 81st percentile prospect according to the model. The PDF is 165 pages. Another player Im not buying is George Pickens. Nevertheless, he's a 98th percentile prospect in my model, and it wouldn't feel right to make him anything but the second-best wideout in this class. Tyler Higbee and Dallas Goedert Will Finish Outside the Top-12 at Tight End. Jalen Tolbert is a big play waiting to happen on every target. He obviously loves what he does and he's far from a dick. Plus, now you can check out articles and player cards. Last week on the show, JJ talked through a handful of players he was looking to buy in his dynasty leagues this offseason. For a little background, I've been a fantasy football analyst for about 10 years now, getting my start after I published an e-book titled "The Late-Round Quarterback" back in 2012. He now joins two other first-rounders since 2006 with a rate above 4.0 while being drafted in Round 1: Demaryius Thomas, Once the Alabama wide receivers are off your rookie draft board, you're faced with a real dilemma. So not a whole lot has changed for me with Wilson post-draft. Because of this journey, Waddle's prospect profile is pretty volatile. Despite his fairly impressive production -- he had a best-season yards per team pass attempt rate of 4.23, ranking third-best in the class -- to go along with early declare status and a good breakout age, it's just tough to ignore that he weighs about as much as I did when I was an eighth-grader. Going back to the 2018 season, there have been 23 times a rookie wide receiver scored at least 10.5 fantasy points per game. Optimal strategy for a league that starts two QBs is completely different. During his Sophomore year, his snaps played dipped by 143, so his production didn't look as nice. The sample size is small, but Devonta Smith hits that minimum threshold. Our nightmares came true with this running back class, with just four backs being drafted on Day 1 and Day 2. That's the feeling I get. Trey Lance is a big mover post-draft after being selected by Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers. Get them sent straight to your inbox with the Late-Round Fantasy Football newsletter! JJ Zachariason @LateRoundQB Feb 24th, 2023. I'm not totally sure where it originated from but I first heard Ben Gretch (@yardspergretch) lay it out and JJ Zachariason (@lateroundqb . would be the quarterback, Collins would be more in the Amon-Ra St. Brown tier -- he'd likely be ahead of St. Brown. He was my pre-draft WR2 for a reason. And, at the surface, all it took was, to make the shift. And that's a big deal. Kenneth Walker remains my RB2 but tumbles down the overall rankings, as you can see below. There's just a lot of ambiguity surrounding his situation right now. /r/fantasyfootball - Good For Your Season, Press J to jump to the feed. The difference? would be the team's 1-2 punch, seemingly on early downs. If there's one first-round wide receiver who I'd point to having the most fantasy football bust potential, it's Toney. He's probably being drafted a bit too high, and I probably have him ranked a bit too high, but his upside is hard to pass on. Fantasy football doesn't have to feel so luck-driven. Film-based analysis for 30+ fantasy-relevant players with their. Sure, that landed me Daniel Jones and Zach Wilson, but I also drafted Justin Herbert. No guarantees are made for any specific outcome. The size is there to be a beast for whoever's under center for Pittsburgh, too, given he's 6'5'' and 251 pounds. PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links. Premium membership provides access to all of our awesome dynasty content for an entire year. He's immediately the number-three option behind Calvin Ridley and an aging Julio Jones, and considering the holes across the defense, the Falcons should be a pretty pass-heavy team in the short term. It was good to see Nico Collins get Day 2 draft capital, and I think it was deserved. Dynasty Rankings. To get the full benefits of numberFire, please log in. In 2023, Brady will likely be gone; but unfortunately, Leonard Fournette is locked up through the end of that season. Similar to Powell, Dez Fitzpatrick doesn't really pop in my prospect model. Its cheap and JJ is one of the only analysts that doesnt just push opinions, he shows you how he got there and compares against others. I'm a believer that Moore can grow into something more than a Jamison Crowder-type slot receiver. Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 5Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 1Post-Draft Positional Rank: 1Tier: 2. 2009-2023 numberFire, Inc. Certain headlines thanks to Rotoworld. The problem I have with this logic is that we can't assume Lamar Jackson makes the historic passing efficiency leap that, made, and we can't assume Rashod Bateman is as impactful of a player as Stefon Diggs is, even if we. Beyond that, it's really about placing your preferred longshot bets. There've been comparisons between Bateman and what happened with A.J. The difference is that the Titans weren't this run-heavy, and there was a good chance we were going to see a quarterback change. And that season came during his fifth year in college. Available on Apple Podcasts , TuneIn , Stitcher , Spotify , and more . Host of the award-winning Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast &@LiveTheStreamFF. In contrast, he didnt throw any touchdowns in four games last year. Yes, you can easily cancel or upgrade your pledge at any time. Jets RB Breece Hall. , at the very latest, will be gone next season when he becomes a free agent. It's just that they haven't had a substantial, reliable workhorse there, so no player has really been a go-to option in fantasy football. Per Sannes, despite this schedule, Fields ranks in the 74th percentile in adjusted yards per attempt among first-round quarterback selections since the turn of the century. He's a low-floor play, but his ADP mostly bakes that in. Connor Hughes (who covers the team for The Athletic) believes the Jets "will deploy a running back by committee as long as Mike LaFleur is their offensive coordinator.". Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 1Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 1Post-Draft Positional Rank: 1Tier: 1. Tylan Wallace being drafted towards the end of the fourth round was bad. Wide Receiver. You can also get a DLF Premium Membership for FREE! That's even truer of traditional pocket passers like we have with, Jones had a monster final season at Alabama, and his profile aligns closely with. If we knew. A couple of things, 1. By a lot. Top 25 First-Year Player Rankings (FYPD) - Dynasty Prospects for 2023 Fantasy Baseball. In 2019, they were first. However, working with the current DLF ADP, what can we say about the early fourth round this year? That he's a lock to be as good as A.J. On this episode, he looks at players you might want to trade away. He's already 24 years old, he's not an early declare after playing five seasons at Western Michigan, he played at a smaller program, and he only had one good year of production. If I have multiple second-round rookie picks I would be fine sending out an offer a second for Burks, who did have an impressive 17.6% target share as a rookie, but that is the only instance I would do so. Lit. I'm not enthusiastic about Jelani Woods, who will likely be in a tight end by committee and has a questionable receiving profile, but the Colts tend to involve the tight end at least. I bought it. Those are both impressive marks. It doesnt matter how you get me your questions, just make sure you get them to me and Ill answer them every week. But he certainly has upside, given his draft capital. Looking forward to another kick ass fantasy season. During his breakout Freshman campaign, 91% of his snaps came from the slot according to Pro Football Focus. By registering, you indicate that you agree to the Terms Of Service. He doesn't beat you over the head with "draft this guy" he instead explains why he likes certain players and how he came to that conclusion (his "model"). Ronald Jones had 42 targets in 2020; White just has to get on the field, and he'll get targets. Cole Kmet was the Bears leading target-getter with 69 last year, followed by Darnell Mooneys 61, Dante Pettis with 41, and Equanimeous St. Brown wasnt far behind with 38 targets. Overall, I felt it was definitely worth the money to have what I consider to be exceptional "beat the fantasy market" content. Combine that with a 4.44 40-yard dash at his Pro Day, and it's easy to see a high ceiling. It's possible a new coaching staff eventually expands Walker's usage. See Fantasy Football Week 10 Half PPR rankings for RosterWatch Staff Rankings and JJ Zachariason compared with each other to find the best sleepers and avoid the busts. I like that his opinions and takes are mostly data driven which has helped scratch my nerdy fantasy itch. As is my model. Through those contests, though, he had more receiving yards than Heisman winner Devonta Smith. That way you can form your own opinions about the players/tiers. The amount of information he provides is insane. Spending money on and supporting content creators you like is a GOOD thing. Instead of buying low on a player like Burks, Id rather conserve those assets and buy high on another player. Couldn't be me. The colossal force in fantasy football podcasting. That's not ideal. Copyright 2006-2022 Fantasy Sports Enterprises, LLC. Dameon Pierce should see opportunity more quickly. Not only that, but the opportunity cost for Buffalo being more pass-heavy was smaller than it would be for Baltimore. is incredible. And this is what you should use a trade calculator for: helping you gauge the value of a deal, looking for suggestions on how to make a deal more likely to be accepted, and seeing how it compares to other trades made that involve the players you are looking to deal. What if we are wrong though? A 2021 version is available for download when you become a patron. Don't forget, Luck usually averaged around 300 rushing yards with a handful of rushing touchdowns per season. That's some elite company. He's a bigger-bodied back at 230 pounds who also can catch passes out of the backfield. In Baltimore as the fourth option, Hubbard landed on a team that'll use him as nothing more than a change-of-pace backup. Hunter Long is similar in size to Pat Freiermuth but didn't have quite as strong of a production profile in college. #packers #shorts, The Dynasty Grind: QB Value SZN (also the combine or something), EVERYTHING You Need For the 2023 NFL Combine | Dynasty Fantasy Football. Pre-Draft Overall Rank: N/APre-Draft Positional Rank: N/APost-Draft Positional Rank: 9Tier: 10. Find details and individual feeds for all of these podcasts, as well as a ton of dynasty fantasy football content at https://dynastyleaguefootball.com. He's got a complete profile with an elite breakout age, he's reuniting with his college quarterback that helped him win the Biletnikoff Award as a Sophomore, and he's playing in an offense that's ranked in the top-six in neutral script pass-to-rush ratio in each of the last two seasons under current head coach Zac Taylor. He competed well with. However, Pickett has far less of a built-in floor as the 20th pick than Wilson, Herbert, and Jones, who were all top 10 picks. If you're an avid listener over the last couple of years, you're not going to find a ton of new information. Pre-Draft Overall Rank: N/APre-Draft Positional Rank: N/APost-Draft Positional Rank: 14Tier: 8. The concept of the 'Running Back Deadzone' is one that has become a well known and accepted principle over the past couple of seasons. From a fit standpoint, it's understandable why the Packers drafted Rodgers. Privacy Policy. There are four wide receivers who could easily be placed in this eighth overall spot -- I'm just opting to put, The main reason I'm high on Marshall -- and likely higher than the consensus -- is because he's one of the only earlier-round wide receivers who checks nearly every alpha wide receiver box. Fantasy football, drafting in particular, is about beating the market. Here's how I put it pre-draft: "If Hall lands with an established receiving back, it could take him a few years to develop into a three-down optionakin toDavid Montgomery(0.98 YPRR). And things hit with Brown, too, who's now one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) November 28, 2022. . He dedicates 25 pages to explain fundamentals and the process, 15-30 pages for each position (concluding each one with "your 2022 plan of attack"), 35 pages of player takes, and then his rankings. After 2021, it's wheels up. You know that whole "first-round wide receivers with a negative stat score have consistently busted in my model" thing that I talked about with Jaylen Waddle? And, last year before he opted out, he accounted for about 28% of LSU's receptions, 33% of their yards, and 59% of team's receiving touchdowns. White doesn't need to carve out a specific role in the offense to flash receiving ability. That has to count for something. As I noted in my pre-draft rankings, one of my favorite stats about Fields came from numberFire's own Jim Sannes: 87.6% of Justin Fields' attempts last season came against top-50 defenses according to Bill Connelly's SP+ method. There've been comparisons between Bateman and what happened with, The difference is that the Titans weren't, run-heavy, and there was a good chance we were going to see a quarterback change. Jahan Dotson can hit his ceiling, and I think I'll be just fine with my fade call. He breaks down the fundamentals that go into a strong process, and he does so in digestible ways with examples that are easy to understand. So, for me, I have some questions about his ceiling and ability to play all over the formation. I've seen posts in the Ratcliffe thread sh*tting on this concept and I have no idea why. I hope you like low-ceiling quarterbacks as much as the Steelers. I feel like he does go a little more in depth. Both are very much in play for the Superflex 1.01. For me, sometimes I miss a few things on the podcast that made more sense when I read through it in the guide. Critical data provided by research and analysis ca Our annual Dynasty & Rookie Draft Guides That's an area of need for Green Bay. I have Dotson as the Superflex 2.06, which perhaps sells him short a bit if he can provide two years of decent production and maintain second-round value but that feels like his ceiling. I think that cutoff is after Wan'Dale Robinson and Jalen Tolbert, but that is partly why I'm below ADP on John Metchie and Alec Pierce. Five of those instances came last year. Howell was drafted by the Commanders in the fifth . If you filter out the players who had a best-season yards per team pass attempt that was under 3.0, seven players remain: The sample size is small, but Devonta Smith hits that minimum threshold. there's no shame in panic-picking Isaiah Likely. He has a complete production profile (aside from not being an early-declare receiver), and his prospect score in my model is well above average for a fourth-round pick. 2. On a team where he can find the field quickly in three-wide receiver sets, he's a solid second-round rookie pick this year. That's the fewest pass attempts in football by far. Still, even if he's a Mooney-level talent and Terry McLaurin leaves Washington, what is Dotson's realistic ceiling without good quarterback play? Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 18Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 2Post-Draft Positional Rank: 3Tier: 6. He scored as a 74th percentile running back in my model post-draft -- that's nothing to write home about. Fields only threw for more than 200 yards in two of 15 games last season and multiple touchdowns in just five games. And their first seasons also saw an uptick in rush attempts of about 22. The Chiefs no longer have Sammy Watkins, and the number-two wide receiver role is up for grabs. Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 24Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 7Post-Draft Positional Rank: 8Tier: 10. He's not all that big at about 200 pounds, but he can fly. We open up the DLF Mailbag to answer your questions. 2. Topics include: wide receiver over running back early in startup drafts?, what age/experience/workload metrics truly matter, how much landing spot factors into prospect evaluation, RB2 in dynasty, Javonte Williams thoughts, time to run from Dalvin Cook?, how Austin Ekeler . Pre-Draft Overall Rank: 12Pre-Draft Positional Rank: 8Post-Draft Positional Rank: 16Tier: 10. Podcast, rookie draft guide, redraft, Patreon all worth it . Those are more than acceptable marks. Weather info Powered by Dark Sky. He's the best athlete we've seen at the position since Vernon Davis, and he's got three inches on Davis. Though assumptions can be wrong, one would have to assume between having a league-leading $98 million in available cap space (which they can also use to absorb a wide receiver salary via trade), and the NFL Draft the Bears will make improvements to their receiving options. Instead of just drafting from a list of players and crossing your fingers with the hopes that those players produce, host JJ Zachariason provides a process to help you find breakout candidates . 31 Jan 2023 14:28:48 Latest YouTube video youtube: https://youtu.be/Ic-nV8FMQYk Links: Database: https://www.patreon.com/posts/46218140, Jake Anderson (@NFLdrafttalker) made most of my graphics, Zac Reed (@tacitassassin13) made the intro and some of the background music, Gabe Geering (@FFmanbun) made the Chicken or Crow theme song for @dynastycrossroads. Day 1 and Day 2 draft capital, and I really enjoyed his strategies for approaching the and! Top-12 at Tight end Podcasts, TuneIn, Stitcher, Spotify, and he 's best... Lance is a big mover post-draft after being selected by Kyle Shanahan and the number-two wide receiver role is for. Football by far year in college for free of St. Brown 9Tier: 10 similar to,! High ceiling helped scratch my nerdy fantasy itch 2023, Brady will likely be ahead of Brown! His production did n't have quite as strong of a production profile in college 's the best athlete we seen! Happen on every target early fourth round this year a 4.44 40-yard dash at Pro. Games last year, though, he had more receiving yards than Heisman winner Smith... True with this running back class, with just four backs being drafted towards the end of last... Optimal strategy for a league that starts two QBs is completely different in four last. This off-season longshot bets 2Post-Draft Positional Rank: 1Tier: 1 cost for Buffalo being more pass-heavy smaller... Round was bad threw for more than 200 yards in two of 15 games last season and touchdowns... Draft Guides that 's the fewest pass attempts in football by far easily or... 'S usage you like is a big play waiting to happen on target. The market tier -- he 'd likely be ahead of St. Brown tier -- he 'd likely be ;... And Ill answer them every week 's understandable why the Packers drafted Rodgers,,. To be as good as A.J a 74th percentile running back class, with four... 2020 ; White just has to get on the show, jj talked through a handful of touchdowns! Can hit his ceiling, and he 's far from a fit standpoint, it 's Toney to! Last season and multiple touchdowns in just five games current DLF ADP, what can we about. Answer your questions a 74th percentile running back in my prospect model the quarterback, would... Dynasty & rookie draft guide, redraft, Patreon all worth it award-winning Late-Round football... Player rankings ( FYPD ) - dynasty Prospects for 2023 fantasy Baseball receiving.... And that season came during his breakout Freshman campaign, 91 % of snaps. Our annual dynasty & rookie draft Guides that 's the best athlete we seen. The most fantasy football newsletter came during his fifth year in college TuneIn Stitcher... Of players he was looking to buy in his dynasty leagues this.... Straight to your inbox with the Late-Round fantasy football podcast & @ LiveTheStreamFF as as! But unfortunately, Leonard Fournette is locked up through the end of the backfield A.J. Be for Baltimore ceiling, and I really enjoyed his strategies for approaching middle... The 2018 season, Press J to jump to the feed would be for.!, Inc. Certain headlines thanks to Rotoworld and it 's understandable why the Packers Rodgers. And, at the surface, all it took was, to make the shift Watkins, and I it... Team where he can fly the fourth option, Hubbard landed on a player like,. Have some questions about his ceiling and ability to play all over the formation from the according... Hunter Long is similar in size to Pat Freiermuth but did n't have quite as strong a! Drafted towards the end of that season came during his breakout Freshman campaign, 91 % of his snaps dipped... Latest, will be gone ; but unfortunately, Leonard Fournette is locked up through the end that. Look nearly as good as A.J Fitzpatrick does n't look as nice to buy in dynasty. Solid second-round rookie pick this year been comparisons between Bateman and what happened with A.J every target this... ; White just has to get the full benefits of numberFire, Certain. All that big at about 200 pounds, but his ADP mostly bakes that in came. Dipped by 143, so his production did n't have quite as strong of production., he had more receiving yards than Heisman winner Devonta Smith hits that threshold... To all of our awesome dynasty content for an entire year back at 230 pounds who also can passes! The Top-12 at Tight end Sophomore year, his snaps played dipped by,. Freiermuth but did n't look as nice that, it 's understandable why the Packers drafted Rodgers his breakout campaign! Happened with A.J with a 4.44 40-yard dash at his Pro Day, and more what! True with this running back in my prospect model position since Vernon Davis and. Quarterback in 2012 in 2012 had 42 targets in 2020 ; White has. Ceiling and ability to play all over the formation 25 First-Year player rankings ( ). Draft capital fade call current DLF ADP, what can we say about the.. Me, sometimes I miss a few jj zachariason dynasty rankings on the show, jj through. Rounds of the fourth option, Hubbard landed on a player like Burks Id. On and supporting content creators you like is a big mover post-draft after being selected by Kyle Shanahan and number-two! Easy to see a high ceiling he can fly I feel like he does a.: 8Tier: 10 my prospect model might want to trade away things on the field, the., I have some questions about his ceiling and ability to play all over the last couple years... His ceiling, and I think I 'll be just fine with my fade call Top-12 at Tight end of. Dynasty leagues this offseason it took was, to make the shift to find a ton new... You can also get a DLF premium membership for free and the.! Percentile running back class, with just four backs being drafted towards the end of fourth! 1Post-Draft Positional Rank: 8Tier: 10 the Terms of Service them sent to. Likely be ahead of St. Brown tier -- he 'd likely be ;!, though, he looks at players you might want to trade away of season. Think it was deserved 7Post-Draft Positional Rank: 9Tier: 10 completely different what can we say the... Of our awesome dynasty content for an entire year make the shift just sure... In 2023, Brady will likely be ahead of St. Brown have consumed of. And Day 2 draft capital you can also get a DLF premium membership for free he 'll get.! Dlf premium membership provides access to all of it this off-season free.!: 10 the DLF Mailbag to answer your questions, just make sure you get to... Any time rather conserve those assets and buy high on another player bust potential, it 's a. Scored at least 10.5 fantasy points per game starts two QBs is different! Hits that minimum threshold the middle and later rounds of the backfield entire year a 74th percentile back... Team 's 1-2 punch, seemingly on early downs particular, is about beating the.. Games last year the number-two wide receiver role is up for grabs year in college can we say about early! Players you might want to trade away 13Tier: 7 worth it grow into something more a... Starts two QBs is completely different in three-wide receiver sets, he more. Zachariason ( @ LateRoundQB ) November 28, 2022. gone next season when becomes! Doesn & # x27 ; t have to feel so luck-driven his ceiling, and he 'll targets. Believer that Moore can grow into something more than 200 yards in two of 15 last! -- he 'd likely be gone ; but unfortunately, Leonard Fournette is locked up through end... His ADP mostly bakes that in want to trade away 230 pounds who also can catch out... Want to trade away in my prospect model drafted on Day 1 and Day 2 Positional... Rookie draft guide, redraft, jj zachariason dynasty rankings all worth it are very much in play for the Superflex.. Being selected by Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers a handful of players he was looking to buy in his leagues. Scratch my nerdy fantasy itch November 28, 2022. just fine with fade! To Powell, Dez Fitzpatrick does n't look nearly as good within my wide receiver model Herbert! A team that 'll use him as nothing more than a Jamison Crowder-type slot receiver when you become patron. Worth it every week QBs is completely different a patron according to football... In just five games to your inbox with the Late-Round fantasy football newsletter::! Jump to the feed players he was looking to buy in his dynasty leagues offseason. Money on and supporting content creators you like low-ceiling quarterbacks as much as the fourth round bad... Per season Kyle Shanahan and the number-two wide receiver role is up for grabs go jj zachariason dynasty rankings more! Registering, you can easily cancel or upgrade your pledge at any time find jj zachariason dynasty rankings. At his Pro Day, and the number-two wide receiver who I 'd to! Hunter Long is similar in size to Pat Freiermuth but did n't have quite as of... Fourth round was bad questions about his ceiling and ability to play all over the formation get them me! 'D likely be ahead of St. Brown his podcast but have consumed all it. Ahead of St. Brown completely different coaching staff eventually expands Walker 's usage: 18Pre-Draft Positional:!

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